Markets· August 17, 2026 at 12:12 p.m.
Historical Trends Suggest Stock Market Volatility Ahead Amid Strong Earnings Season
Key takeaways
- Historical trend suggests stock market volatility ahead
- S&P 500 experiencing record highs due to strong earnings season
- 86% of companies have reported earnings per share above Wall Street estimates
A period of relative market stability is expected to give way to volatility, according to BTIG strategist Jonathan Krinsky. Historically, the August-October period during mid-term election years has seen at least a 7% pullback in the majority of cases since 1990. The S&P 500 is currently experiencing record highs due to strong second quarter earnings season, with earnings for S&P 500 companies on pace to rise at least 50% year over year. About 86% of companies have reported earnings per share above Wall Street estimates, a figure that could mark the highest percentage since the second quarter of 2021 if it holds.
