Blank Sailings Impact Ocean Capacity and Shipping Reliability

Uneven growth in ocean capacity is causing longer lead times, reduced schedule reliability, and increased pressure on freight rates for shippers, according to Pete Mento, a director at Baker Tilly’s global trade management services. Despite more market capacity, shippers still face the risk of having less vessel space due to blank sailings, slower sailing speeds, vessel redeployment, or service changes. This results in cargo being pushed onto the next available vessels, causing several weeks of demand fighting over one week’s worth of space. Shippers can no longer rely on pre-pandemic supply models and must readjust their minimum thresholds and adapt their allocation strategies. Mento explained that pre-pandemic supply models were more predictable, but transportation networks may not entirely return to those conditions due to increased awareness of resilience, alternate sourcing, inventory buffers, and geopolitical risk.